Political Polls and the “Mode Effect”

Open Mind

I’ve been retrieving polling data (not the detailed stuff, but the overall results) from HuffPost Pollster. While checking the latest, I found an interesting article about a possible “mode effect” in poll results.

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Open Mind

We now have data for global temperature at earth’s surface (which is where we live) through June of this year, from both NASA and NOAA. Graphs are a lot less messy if we convert monthly data to yearly, simply by computing annual averages. This year (2015) isn’t complete yet, but I’ll plot the 2015-so-far averages anyway, to give you an idea of how the year is shaping up compared to previous years. I’ll also put them on the same baseline, more easily to compare the two. Without further ado, here’s the result:


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Temperature Data Update

Open Mind

Since last year was the hottest on record, many people have trained a keen eye on this year’s temperature data so see how it will compare with last year’s record-breaker.

So far, it’s a hot one indeed. How hot? NASA has just released the global temperature data for April, and although we only have four months of data for the year so far, some of the folks at home are wondering how this-year-so-far compares to previous years’ temperatures. Here you are:


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Graphs by the Dozen

Open Mind

Quite a bit of attention was paid to the fact that in the global temperature data from NASA, and from NOAA, the year 2014 turned out to be the hottest on record. Even more attention ensued because so far this year has also been rather toasty world-wide, so much so that by February we set new record highs for average temperature over a 12-month period (sometimes called 12-month running means). Simply put, March 2014 through February 2015 was the hottest 12-month period on record in both NASA and NOAA data. Then when the numbers arrived for March of this year, it turns out we topped even that record; April 2014 through March 2015 became the new hottest 12-month period on record, for both NASA and NOAA data; here’s the NASA version (click the graph for a larger, clearer view):


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Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?

Grant Foster provides a clear, detailed analysis on why there is no statistical evidence of a “pause” or even a slowdown in global surface temperature.

Open Mind

A recent blog post on RealClimate by Stefan Rahmstorf shows that when it comes to recent claims of a “pause” or “hiatus,” or even a slowdown in global surface temperature, there just isn’t any reliable evidence to back up those claims.


Yet for years one of the favorite claims of those who deny the danger of global warming has been “No global warming since [insert start time here] !!!” They base the statement on the observed data of earth’s surface temperature or its atmospheric temperature. Then they claim that such a “pause” or “hiatus” in temperature increase disproves, in one fell swoop, everything about man-made climate change.

They seem a bit worried lately because it is very likely that the data from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) will record this year as the hottest on record; we won’t know, of course, until 2014 is complete. A single…

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A pause or not a pause, that is the question.

Open Mind

One day, a new data set is released. The rumor runs rampant that it’s annual average global temperature since 1980.


Climate scientist “A” states that there is clearly a warming trend (shown by the red line), at an average rate of about 0.0139 deg.C/yr. She even computes the uncertainty in that trend estimate (using fancy statistics), and uses that to compute what’s called a “95% confidence interval” for the trend — the range in which we expect the true warming rate is 95% likely to be; it can be thought of as the “plausible range” for the warming rate. Since 95% confidence is the de facto standard in statistics (not universal, but by far the most common), nobody can fault her for that choice. The confidence interval is from 0.0098 to 0.0159 deg.C/yr. She also adds that there’s no sign of any slowdown in the rate of warming.

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Open Mind

A recent post at WUWT is titled “Needed: Accurate climate forecasts.” My opinion: the authors, Paul Driessen and David R. Legates, give us a stunning display of false and/or misleading claims.

Being mistaken about something, and therefore making false claims, is only human; in most cases we should correct, but not indict. Yet there are cases in which such behavior is genuinely culpable. When false claims come from those who really should know better, who indeed would know better if they were more interested in the truth than in pushing some agenda, ignorance becomes willful ignorance and therefore culpable. When those who really should know better make statements that are technically correct but clearly misleading, it becomes dishonesty. Is that what Driessen and Legates have done? You make the call.

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Campaign Work

I recently graduated from RCC with an AAS degree in Advertising & Graphic Design. One of our assignments had us upload some of our work to a blog post. After thinking about it, I decided to go with the Joint Photography project which me and fellow photography student Erik Bourgeois collaborated on in the 2014 Spring semester. For the project we were asked to develop an advertising or rebranding campaign for something like a product or business. Erik and I decided to go with a rebranding campaign for a local non-profit called the Randolph Arts Guild. The campaign involved coming up with a new slogan, identity, and message for the Randolph Arts Guild. Erik was the photography man and I was the type man. I was responsible for the overall design and layout. Below is some of our work for different media to showcase the new rebranding campaign.


Magazine Cover


Magazine Spread